As the 2024 holiday shopping season and Black Friday sales begin, society is entering a new era driven by AI and greater consumer choice amidst the overall backdrop of continuing inflation concerns.  While more and more stores aren’t going to be open overnight on Thanksgiving, the Black Friday annual sales are more alive than ever before. But it’s not just a single day, as virtually every Amazon shopper can attest.

“Black Friday and other discounting events are becoming longer, and the trend will likely continue,” predicts Chiranjeev Kohli, professor of marketing at Cal State Fullerton’s College of Business and Economics. “The internet and AI are making it easier to find deals throughout the year, so retailers have to strive harder to make their deals effective. This pattern can be seen in both physical and digital storefronts.”

In an era of AI, consumers can more easily search for deals, comparing opportunities at their favorite brick-and-mortar retailer across town with online sellers a continent away. In some ways, this may be more work for the consumer since it involves more research. But in this era of high prices, it might be justified, especially for expensive big-ticket items, believes Kohli.

“Consumers are feeling the pinch and looking for good deals to make ends meet,” he says. “And there are other trends, such as environmental consciousness, but that may take a backseat to getting the lowest prices. Retailers and marketers are also doing their best to make the shopping experience more pleasant by offering financing and in-store pickup and combining the physical storefront with online shopping.”

According to Forbes, global holiday shopping sales for November and December are likely to total $1.19 trillion, with $277 billion of that in the U.S. Growth is estimated to be 2% from last year – not spectacular, but retailers can take heart that at least it’s not a decline. Salesforce’s latest Shopping Index reveals that two-thirds of global shoppers will decide where to shop based on price, up from 46% in 2020.

The National Retail Federation expects spending of $902 per person on average on seasonal items. And that is $16 more than the record set in 2019, on the eve of the COVID pandemic.

“On a broad level, household optimism seems to be on the rebound,” observes Pedro Amaral, professor of economics. “The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is higher than it was at this time last year and higher than a month ago. And people are right to be financially optimistic as disposable income has been coming in strong, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. It has grown about 3% year-over-year, in real terms, after accounting for inflation, which is a pretty good clip. Moreover, the stock market has been upbeat all year, especially after the election. And Goldman Sachs has just lowered the probability of a recession in the next year to only 15!”

Especially in California, holiday shoppers will likely notice many tried-and-true retailers missing in action this year. Macy’s, 99 Cents Only Stores, Family Dollar, and Big Lots are among the retailers cutting some or all their Golden State locations in 2024.

In these high-priced times, and considering changing social norms, Kohli suggests shoppers at least consider resale boutiques such as American Cancer Society’s Discovery Shops, OC Goodwill, or the Salvation Army as options for at least some gifts. Or perhaps consider bidding on eBay.

“Buying used no longer has the stigma it once did, and you can get good quality items at a lower price as long as you’re willing to forgo extras such as the nice new packaging,” says Kohli. “This is also good for the environment. Consumers shouldn’t get swept away by the temptations of deals. Instead, they should think about what they really need and want. Consider only buying items on a prewritten list rather than picking up every good deal they come across.”

The 2024 holiday shopping season promises to be a time of change, growth and tradition, all combined into a season of joy and celebration of family, friends and faith. Best holiday wishes to all our students, alumni, faculty, staff and donors!