In addition to the top-ranked MBA programs covering a wide range of concentrations, Cal State Fullerton’s College of Business and Economics offers a number of specialized master’s degrees that enable students to take the next steps in career, teaching or research readiness in fields such as economics and information systems.

The masters in economics is a particularly coveted degree globally. Denisa Marc, originally from Romania, came to Cal State Fullerton to join the masters in economics program.

In 2024, she earned her degree, as well as the Giles T. Brown Thesis Excellence Award for her thesis focused on predicting changes in treasury yields based on Federal Reserve statements.

Denisa shared with us about her achievement and goals.

Please tell us a little about the details of your thesis and how it adds to the body of knowledge in economics. 

From bankers to investors, politicians and economists, people always keep their eyes and ears out for Fed announcements, especially when scheduled meetings are approaching.

Experts pick up on certain cues about the direction in which the economy is headed and financial markets are sensitive to the Fed’s statement wording as it changes from one meeting to the next.

With this in mind, I collected all the Fed statements between 2000 and 2023 and analyzed how the changes in wording affect the five-, 10- and 30-year treasury yields in a 30-minute post-statement window.

Traditional econometric methods that have been used by researchers so far are not capable of capturing semantic information or dealing with high-frequency data. I had a massive dataset to work with. For this reason, my model uses large language models and neural networks instead, which represent a cutting-edge and partly unexplored methodology in current economic research.

Additionally, I developed my own dataset of analyst’s opinions about the Fed statement being released, to account for the market expectations in my analysis. That meant collecting and analyzing news from the biggest financial sources, such as Bloomberg, The Financial Times, The Economist and the Wall Street Journal. 

My research proved that every word matters and has the power to trigger significant changes in the financial markets.

You have a focus on taking economics research to new levels and challenges. What future research do you foresee yourself doing? 

I’m definitely more of a macroeconomics person rather than a microeconomics one – I guess I am a little biased – so my current and future research is centered on that. I love economic forecasting, monetary policy, financial economics and any combination of the three.

The beautiful thing about economics is that it’s never boring. There is always something happening.

The world has definitely progressed a lot, technology-wise, and I think this can be a very useful tool for researchers. Sure, the tried and true methods will always remain valuable and provide researchers with a benchmark, but at the same time, we have to keep being up-to-date.

What are your thoughts on receiving the Giles T. Brown Thesis Excellence Award?

I was blown away by receiving the Giles T. Brown Thesis Excellence Award, becoming one of the few Cal State Fullerton students to receive this distinction.

Receiving such recognition in my last semester in the program has made this project even more special and has brought a sense of satisfaction towards the hard work that went into my thesis. I realized through this process that I do enjoy writing, working with data, struggling to find solutions, developing new skills, and being up-to-date with what happens in the world.

All researchers know that there is no greater joy than seeing the final version of a long-term project. I am sure that this will open many doors, as it has already brought collaboration prospects with others in various research projects and in my future career endeavors.

Where do you see yourself in the next few years? 

I have taken a full-time role as an Associate for a municipal advisory firm that I interned for during my second year of my master’s program.

Pursuing a Ph.D. is a prospect I am exploring at this time and is a path that many of my mentors are encouraging me to take on. I am 24 years old and I have many dreams, plans and options. We will see what comes next – that’s what makes life beautiful and interesting!

Which faculty members were most impactful to your success?

I was blessed enough to be taught by knowledgeable professors and surrounded with so much support. Thank you so much, Radha Bhattacharya, Pedro Amaral and Gabriela Best!

I would love to shout-out two special faculty members. My advisor, Thomas May, who got on board with my thesis and helped me build a very ambitious project in such a short amount of time.  He was the first one to introduce me to the world of machine learning and I learned a lot from him about what it means to be a researcher. He also believed in me enough to suggest that we apply for the Giles T. Brown Award and saw the potential in the topic I was developing.

Then, my second shout-out goes to Mira Farka, who is just the epitome of awesome in the macroeconomic world. Working closely with her for the Woods Center for Economic Analysis and Forecasting for the past two years has developed my ability to work with large datasets and deepened my economic reasoning, both proving to be crucial in forming new research ideas (including the one for my thesis).

You were an international student at CSUF. What were some memorable moments in your international student experience? What advice would you give to your fellow Titans from abroad? 

It has always been my dream to come study in the U.S. I graduated top of my class as an International Business and Economics major, but I knew before I even finished that program that my next step was going to be applying for a master’s in the U.S. 

This entire journey was and will remain memorable to me. From the application process, when I had no guarantee of where and how and if I’d get admitted, to receiving my acceptance letter from CSUF and preparing to move to the other side of the world.

Getting the Economics Department’s support in my international adventure was crucial – from the GA position they offered me, getting to work with great faculty, and receiving performance scholarships to make it during my years here.

In terms of advice, I would tell my fellow international Titans to not be scared to pursue something that is out of their comfort zone. There is a lot of growth and potential to be unlocked in getting a higher education abroad.

You have to try (and keep trying) to persevere. If anybody right now reading this is considering studying at CSUF, my advice is just do it. You will not regret it and there are so many opportunities and people ready to help to get you started. Nonetheless, the Economics Department is the way to go and just amazing. Let’s go Titans!