At the 25th Annual Economic Forecast Conference on Oct. 30, Cal State Fullerton economists Anil Puri and Mira Farka examined the outlook for the global, U.S., and Orange County economies over the next two years. While they predict that the U.S. economy will avoid a recession over the next 12 to 18 months, they expect a slowdown in growth and emphasize a degree of high risk due to political instability.
In October 2019, the U.S. economy marked 124 consecutive months of economic growth since the Great Recession, the longest sustained economic expansion in the nation’s history. While unemployment rates remain low, recession fears have risen, both because of historical precedents of the length of expansions and the aggregation of a number of subtle but troubling signs.
“Recession fears reached a fever pitch in mid-August, when an escalation of the trade war between [the] U.S. and China, downbeat data from Europe and China, and an inversion of additional portions of the yield curve simultaneously combined for a dour outlook,” reported Woods Center Director and Provost Emeritus Anil Puri and Co-Director and Associate Professor of Economics Mira Farka.
“There is no denying that the chances of a recession are uncomfortably high, the highest since the end of the Great Recession. As it ages, the expansion becomes more vulnerable to all sorts of shocks – much like the aging process in humans, while a younger physique may be able to sustain numerous body-blows without succumbing (as this expansion has), doing so at an older age becomes inevitably harder.” Read More