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Volume 9, Number 1, 2003 of the Journal of Real Estate Portfolio Management

All articles listed here are available for download in portable document format.



Project and Portfolio Management Decisions: A Framework and Body of Knowledge Model for Cycle Research

Stephen A. Pyhrr, Waldo Born, Christopher A. Manning, and Stephen E. Roulac

Investors and portfolio managers have recognized the critical importance of real estate cycles, their pervasive and dynamic impacts on investment returns and risks, and their strategic implications for project and portfolio decisions. Despite the extensive global interest in cycles that has developed over the past ten years, there is not a common body of knowledge that is recognized, nor is there a common terminology, theoretical framework and methodology for cycle research by academic and industry researchers. The purpose of this study is to provide a perspective on real estate cycles research; present a user-friendly research framework and classification model for this evolving literature, based on a grounded theory survey of cycle experts; classify existing real estate cycles literature according to this framework and model; provide a reference bibliography on cycles; and provide commentary on the gaps of knowledge on cycles, a proposed research agenda for the future, and a means of accessing better real estate cycle information and data throughout the world.


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REIT Selection and Portfolio Construction: Using Operating Efficiency as an Indicator of Performance

Randy I. Anderson, and Thomas M. Springer

A Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) selection and portfolio construction criteria is developed based on REIT operating efficiency and pricing multiples (price-to-net asset value). Portfolios of REITs are constructed of REITs that have relatively high operating efficiency but are trading at a relatively low price. The results show that these portfolios, constructed with the use of filtering criteria, have superior first year performance in all cases, with an average excess return of 600 basis points compared to the NAREIT Equity Index. In most cases, the REITs also had superior second and third year performance, suggesting performance persistence. Further research is needed to examine if the filter works better with more frequent portfolio rebalancing and if the criteria can be used to effectively execute a short sale strategy.

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Performance of Property Companies in Hong Kong: A Style Analysis Approach

 K. W. Chau, S. K. Wong, and Graeme Newell

This study analyzes the returns of publicly traded property companies using the style analysis approach. Our results show that the proportion of direct real estate has increased over time. This suggests that indirect and direct real estate are becoming closer substitutes for each other. Furthermore, the findings indicate that the performance of most property companies is not significantly different from the performance of the underlying implied portfolio before transaction
costs are taken into account. This implies that the performance of a property company is mainly attributable to its investment style characterized by the implied portfolio rather than management skills.


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Correlation Shifts and Real Estate Portfolio Management

 Stephen L. Lee

The success of any diversification strategy depends on the quality of the estimated correlation between assets. It is well known, however, that there is a tendency for the average correlation among assets to increase when the market falls and vice-versa. This suggests that correlation shifts can be modeled as a function of the market return. This is the idea behind the model Spurgin, Martin and Schneeweis (2000), which models the systematic risk, of an asset as a function of the returns in the market. In this paper the Spurgin et al. model is applied to monthly data in the United Kingdom over the period 1987:1 to 2000:12. The results show that a number of market segments display significantly negative correlation shifts, while others show significantly
positive correlation shifts


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Some Structural Attributes of Institutional Office Investments

Robert Hess, and Youguo Liang

This study explores some of the less cyclical characteristics of the office investment  market. Offices comprise more than one-third of investable commercial real estate by value among the major property types. Private institutional investors allocate about this proportion of offices to their real estate portfolios, but REITs own a somewhat lower proportion by value. The findings indicate that institutional investors have a strong preference for large and/or rapidly growing markets, some preference for newer properties and no discernible investment preferences between CBD and suburban offices. The findings also indicate that office tenancy varies widely across industries, leases run five to ten years and that the average tenant is small.

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Regional Models for Portfolio Diversification

Theron R. Nelson, amd Susan L. Nelson

This research is an extension of earlier efforts to develop geographic diversification strategies based upon economic factors, particularly employment-related measures. A much broader set of measures is used to search for broad macroeconomic cycles. Seven groups of states, labeled ‘‘Capacity Clusters’’ due to the emphasis on economic and development capacity, are identified. Although there are clear signs of geographic influence, the clusters are not at all synonymous with ‘‘pure’’ geographic regions of contiguous states. Utilizing NCREIF property returns data, the ability to develop well diversified portfolios based upon the capacity clusters is tested. The results suggest that superior diversification benefits may be found with the Capacity
Cluster approach.


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How Long Can Real Estate Investments Defy Weak Supply/Demand Conditions?

Hessam Nadji


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