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Introduction Michael A. Anikeeff and Glenn R. Mueller No abstract or executive summary.   Return to the top of this web page |
Growth Strategies for Senior Living Companies Stephen E. Roulac and Aditya R. Eachempati Senior living companies have emerged to comprise an industry of institutional providers for what were once family-provided services. these senior-living companies represent possible opportunities for institutional investors. Investors ultimately are interested in how management's actions can translate into earnings increases and business expansion. To attract capital, these senior living companies must articulate and execute appealing growth strategies. Given the still embryonic state of the senior living services industry, the most critical factor in the success of a company in this industry is the clear articulation of a strong and credible growth strategy. This article explores growth strategies for senior living companies. Return to the top of this web page |
Size, Scope, and Performance of the Seniors Housing and Care Industry: A Comparison with the Multifamily and Lodging Sectors Steven P. Laposa and Harvey N. Singer This research compares the size, operating performance and financial performance of the seniors housing and long-term care (SHLTC) industry with two other major real estate sectors: multifamily (apartments) and lodging (hotels). The multifamily and lodging sectors receive a broader investor following than SHLTC even though SHLTC was found to be similar in dwelling unit count to lodging and has higher industry revenues that multifamily. SHLTC industry operating income is three-quarters that of lodging, and one-half that of multi-family. Capitalization rates and returns on investment in SHLTC are comparable to or higher than the other sectors, and total SHLTC market value (base on capitalized income) is two-thirds that of lodging and more than one-third that of multifamily. thus, SHLTC may deserve greater attention from capital market investors and institutions. Return to the top of this web page |
Survival of the Fittest: Competition, Consolidation and Growth in the Assisted Living Industry Jerry L. Doctrow, Glenn R. Mueller, and Lauren M. Craig This article reviews existing static demand models commonly used in seniors housing industry research to estimate demand for assisted living facilities and advances a new dynamic model for estimating the effective demand of assisted living facilities. The new model considers the number of age, income and disability-qualified seniors that can reasonably be expected to move to assisted living annually from independent residences, other assisted living facilities and skilled nursing facilities. It then compares this effective demand to the number of assisted living units that must be re-rented annually due to high resident turnover and concludes that the effective demand for assisted living is less than many current industry estimates. It proposes new implications for the impact of lower effective demand of new assisted living units for the industry and investors. Return to the top of this web page |
The Efficiency of Nursing Home Chains and the Implications of Non-Profit Status Randy I. Anderson, Danielle Lewis, and James R. Webb In this article, we estimate X-efficiency levels in the nursing home industry and investigate the impact of their profit status and chain affiliation on performance. Using a Bayesian stochastic frontier approach and a nation-wide data set, we find that nursing homes are relatively cost-inefficient. We also find strong evidence that chain affiliations and non-profit status reduce a firm's operational cost efficiency. Finding that chain-affiliated homes are less cost efficient than independent homes casts concerns on the industry in light of the recent growth in chain affiliations. Return to the top of this web page |
Estimating the Demand for Seniors Housing and Home Health Care Michael A. Anikeeff Recently released government data on nursing homes, board and care and home health care show that long-term care use after age 65 varies significantly by state. This study found that the use of care in a state is highly correlated with one particular variable: a state's population over age 85 (R = .96). In general, the model provides a good fit for the state data. However, New York uses more care while California and Florida use less care than predicted. Return to the top of this web page |
Forecasting Seniors Housing Demand in Florida David A. Macpherson and G. Stacy Sirmans This study uses a multinomial logit model to estimate the demand for seniors housing in Florida using these categories of housing choices: (1) no care required, owner occupied; (2) no care required, renter-occupied; (3) Assisted living; (4) Congregate care; and (5) nursing home. The logit results are combined with the United States Census population projections to forecast the demand for the housing categories through the year 2025. Some results are: The no care, owner-occupied category is the largest. The population in assisted living is predicted to grow by 149% from 1990 to 2025. Congregate care is the smallest category and is predicted to remain so. Older non-minorities are more likely to use congregate care while minorities have a very low probability. No care, renter-occupied is the second largest category and is predicted to grow at the highest annual rate. These changes in demand for seniors housing have implications concerning reallocation of resources to meet the specific seniors housing needs. Return to the top of this web page |
Trade Area Demand Analysis for Private Pay Assisted Living Facilities Eleanor Tessier and Glenn R. Mueller Demand analysis for assisted living facilities (ALFs) is a new and growing field. This study attempts to improve ALF demand feasibility models by providing a statistical analysis of residents in four successful ALFs in order to determine where residents came from and what their demographics are, compared to the surrounding community demographics. The results indicate that an average of 70% of the residents and 82% of the adult children come from within a fifteen-mile radius of the four facilities studied, and 80% of the residents and 95% of the adult children come from within a thirty-mile radius of the facilities studied, confirming that the market for ALFs is very local in nature. This study also analyzes the age, gender, income, education, occupation and ADL requirements of residents in facilities to further the understanding of micromarket demand fundamentals and help identify micromarket demographics used in creating a demand model. Return to the top of this web page |
Transitory Effects of Disamenities on Residential Housing Values: The Case of Public and Senior Housing Thomas Carroll and Terrance M. Clauretie This article investigates the effect of low-income and senior housing on the value of nearby residential properties. It is unique in that, in addition to testing for the effect on establishment, it also tests for the duration of the impact. Thirteen projects , including three public senior housing facilities (two large and one moderate in size) are included in the analysis. We investigate the extent and the longevity of the effect of the projects on a sample of 6,321 residential properties. We find that while public housing in general and senior housing in particular has an initial negative impact on nearby property values the effect is neither substantial nor long lasting. Return to the top of this web page |
A Note on Underwriting and Investing in Senior Living and Long-Term Care Properties: Separating the Business from the Real Estate Anthony J. Mullen No abstract or executive summary. Return to the top of this web page |
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