| Estimating Sales for Retail Centers: An
Application of the Poisson Gravity Model Author: A. Ason Okoruwa, Hugh O. Nourse, and Joseph V.
Terza
Start Page: 85
End Page: 98
Volume: 9
Issue Number: 1
Year: 1994
Publication: Journal of Real Estate Research
Abstract: The projection of
total retail sales for a shopping center development is of critical importance in its
valuation, in the making of investment decisions by investors, and to the retail merchants
who must make location decisions. In this study, we apply the Poisson Gravity Model to
forecast the number of shopping trips attracted to each of the major retail centers in the
Atlanta metropolitan area. In the second stage, the estimated total retail sales for all
the shopping centers covered in the study, are allocated to the individual centers, based
on their estimated shopping trip shares.
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