ISDS 361B - Spring 2012

WEEK  5

Topic for the week:   

Forecasting

Contents:

• Stationary Forecasting Models

  • Example: Yoho Brand Yoyo

   

• Evaluating the Performance of Forecasting Techniques

  • Example: Example: Yoho Brand Yoyo

   

• Forecasting Time Series that Exhibit Linear Trend

  • Example: American Family Product

   

• Time Series with Trend, Seasonal, and Cyclical Variation

  • Example: Troy's Mobil

  • Example: CFA

Lecture Materials:

Power Point File

• Forecasting Stationary Models

• Forecasting-Exponential Smoothing

• Forecasting-Performance Measures

• Forecasting Trend Models

• Forecasting-Seasonal Models (2/28: REVISED)

Excel File

• Yoho-Forecasting Stationary Model - Moving Average              Moving Average Exercise (NEW)

• Yoho-Forecasting Stationary Model - Exponential Smoothing     Exponential Smoothing Exercise (NEW)

• American Family Regression-Trend                                             Regression Trend Exercise (NEW)

• Forecasting - Additive Seasonal                                                  Seasonal Trend Exercise (NEW)

• Forecasting - Multiplicative Seasonal

Homework Assignment:

• Homework 4 - Question

• Homework 4 - Answer

Announcement:

• Test 1 March 5 (Monday)