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| Small-Area Population Estimation in
Absorption Analysis Author: Charles H. Heimsath Start Page: 315 Abstract: In spite of a
recognized need for market analysis in real estate appraisal, little attention has been
given to the development of a small-area population forecasting model. This paper presents
a systematic and localized approach for forecasting population as an integral part of a
real estate absorption analysis. The model includes capacity constraints developed from a
tract-specific environmental inventory. Historical growth patterns are adjusted to reflect
the potential for continued development within a designated submarket. Future demand is
calculated from population growth that considers both historical levels of activity and
potential for development. The combined approach provides a defensible basis for
forecasting absorption. |
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